Dollar: Set to Bounce Back
The U.S. currency started the week by hitting three-year lows against a basket of key currencies, but soon closed the gap on DXY, rising from 97.7 to 99.7. However, the upward trend has not yet developed. Unresolved trade disputes between the US and China continue to undermine the US currency's position, creating impulses for a simultaneous sell-off in USD, equities and bonds.
We saw positive traction when markets received assurances that Trump would not fire Powell. But we also continue to note the Fed's rather hawkish rhetoric. Open Market Committee members are openly saying they will not rush to cut rates and are wary of the impact of tariffs on inflation. That said, interest rate futures give a more than 50% chance of four. That's a marked shift from 2-3 cuts a month earlier, which underlies the current dollar weakness. It's a worrying bet that Powell will have to pull the economy out of recession at the end of the year.
Technical analysis suggests an increased chance of a corrective bounce since the start of the year, as there is consolidation after the failure. At the same time, historical data previously showed that after the rebound, one should be ready for a new wave of decline in the US currency.
 

注：此文章由FxPro高級(jí)分析師Alex Kuptsikevich撰寫
本周初，美元兌一籃子主要貨幣匯率觸及三年低點(diǎn)，但很快在美元指數(shù)（DXY）上縮小差距，從97.7升至99.7。然而，上升趨勢(shì)尚未形成。中美之間未解決的貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端繼續(xù)削弱美元的地位，促使美元、股票和債券同時(shí)遭到拋售。
當(dāng)市場(chǎng)獲悉特朗普不會(huì)解雇鮑威爾的承諾后，美元確實(shí)出現(xiàn)了積極走勢(shì)。但我們也持續(xù)關(guān)注到美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)相對(duì)強(qiáng)硬的鷹派表態(tài)。聯(lián)邦公開市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)（FOMC）成員公開表示不會(huì)急于降息，并密切警惕關(guān)稅政策對(duì)通脹的潛在沖擊。也就是說(shuō)，利率期貨給出了（降息）四次的可能性超過(guò)50%。這與一個(gè)月前降息2-3次相比有顯著轉(zhuǎn)變，這也是當(dāng)前美元疲軟的原因所在。這是一個(gè)令人擔(dān)憂的賭注，鮑威爾將不得不在年底把經(jīng)濟(jì)從衰退中拉出來(lái)。
技術(shù)分析表明，自年初以來(lái)，修正性反彈的可能性增加，因?yàn)槌霈F(xiàn)了在下跌失敗后出現(xiàn)盤整。同時(shí)，以往的歷史數(shù)據(jù)顯示，在反彈之后，應(yīng)該為美元新一輪的下跌做好準(zhǔn)備。